An oscillator that bundles four different momentum cycles, from short to long, smooths and weights them into a single line. It visualizes the idea that a major trend turns only when separate cycles that usually wander out of step finally fall into line together.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) is a momentum oscillator devised by the technical analyst Martin Pring.
The name means knowing a sure thing, with Pring's trademark humor baked in. Knowing full well that nothing in markets is ever certain, it still tries to grab the surest reversal signal it can.
The problem KST set out to solve is simple. A single ROC (rate of change) points in completely different directions depending on the period you look at. The short ROC can point up while the long ROC points down, and this happens all the time.
So Pring smoothed four ROCs spanning short, medium, and long periods, then weighted the longer ones more heavily and summed them into a single line.
By bundling several cycles that move out of step, KST avoids being whipped around by short-term noise and surfaces only the moments when the market's larger cycles fall into step. That is its aim.
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